What to watch: Could this flip Oxford for the Liberals? Looking at past results, it appears unlikely.īehind the by-election: Conservative MP Candice Bergen resigned her seat in February. MacKenzie called out his former party on the nomination process, and has since endorsed the Liberal candidate. These days, there is in-fighting in this relatively safe Conservative riding. The last time the Liberals won Oxford in 2000, two conservative parties (Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative) split the right-of-center vote. In a snapshot: Running under the Conservative banner, Mackenzie earned this rural district by comfortable margins, most recently by 26 points over the Liberals in 2021 - a gap of more than 16,000 votes. What to watch: It will be worth noting how Green Party deputy leader JONATHAN PEDNEAULT fares against what should be an easy win for Liberal candidate and former party president ANNA GAINEY.īehind the by-election: Conservative MP DAVE MACKENZIE announced his retirement in December. Garneau won his three elections in NDG-Westmount by comfortable margins (30+ points), never receiving a vote share below 53 percent. There is high linguistic and cultural diversity in the riding - French is the native language of 29 percent of the population and English 44 percent, according to 2021 census data. JACK LAYTON’s NDP won 59 of the province’s then 75 seats, more than any other party since PIERRE TRUDEAU’s near sweep in 1980. It was one of the few places in Quebec to resist the orange wave in 2011. In a snapshot: This riding in the heart of Montreal has voted Liberal for more than a half century. “Though, how the main parties do could offer some pointers on voter enthusiasm.”Here’s Fournier with the down-low:īehind the by-election: Liberal MP and former Cabinet minister MARC GARNEAU resigned his seat in March. “Don’t expect many surprises,” he advised. With two weeks until voting day, we asked 338Canada analyst and POLITICO contributor PHILIPPE J. T-MINUS 14 DAYS -Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has called four by-elections for June 19. Today, what to watch for in the upcoming byelections and a preview of what the week has in store in Parliament. I’m your host, Kyle Duggan, with Philippe J. Send tips | Subscribe here | Follow Politico Canada
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